Gertjan van de Groep, IESF President – interviews:
Eirik Wærness, Senior Vice President and Chief Economist, Head of Global External Analysis at Equinor
Introduction
At this year’s IESF Regional Meeting in Oslo, Eirik Wærness, Senior Vice President and Chief Economist, Head of Global External Analysis at Equinor, opened the event with a keynote entitled “The Energy Transition During Geopolitical Turmoil.” His message cut through the noise:
The world stands at a crossroads that demands bold decisions and visionary leadership. Immediately afterwards, our President in IESF Gertjan van de Groep sat down with Wærness for a deeper conversation about Norway’s future as an energy nation, shifting geopolitics—and what it takes to build bridges to a low-carbon economy in the global context today.
The Conversation
Gertjan: Eirik, Norway has enjoyed five decades of prosperity from oil and gas. Where do you stand today?
Eirik: We’re still blessed with significant resources, but what got us here won’t get us there. Climate targets are tightening and consumption patterns are changing faster than ever. Norway as well as the global world must prepare for a world where hydrocarbons play a smaller role—while leveraging our expertise to create new value.
Gertjan: Equinor’s Energy Perspectives report presents two scenarios: Walls and Bridges. Where is the world heading right now?
Eirik: Frankly—closer to Walls than Bridges. We see rising protectionism, geopolitical conflicts, and an under-the-radar scramble for critical minerals. If we stay on that course, we’ll blow past the 2 °C threshold well before 2050.
Gertjan: What characterizes the Bridges scenario that actually meets the 1.5 °C target?
Eirik: Three words: cooperation, scale, and system. International cooperation, rapid scale-up of clean technology, and an energy system that rewards flexibility and reliability. That takes political courage, market redesign, and businesses willing to invest for the long game.
Gertjan: You described today’s landscape in the Key Note Speak as “ a Brave New World.” What did you mean?
Eirik: Great-power rivalry is back; U.S. politics are unpredictable; there’s war in Europe and unrest in the Middle East. That raises risk premiums and fuels short-term thinking. Financing 20- to 30-year infrastructure is hard in that climate—but such investments are the backbone of the energy transition.
Gertjan: Many point to price collapses when solar and wind flood the grid. How do we solve the “missing money” problem?
Eirik: By redesigning markets. Without price signals that value flexibility, storage, and back-up capacity, no one will build what’s needed. Batteries, hydrogen, carbon capture—all of it needs stable frameworks.
Gertjan: Critical minerals are a hot topic. How exposed are we?
Eirik: Highly. China controls much of the rare-earth value chain. Without diversified sources—and recycling—raw-material shortages could slow the transition more than lack of capital.
Gertjan: In the middle of all this, you still see huge opportunities. Where?
Eirik: At the intersection of energy, digitalization, and industrial policy. Norway can lead on offshore wind, low-carbon gas, CO₂ storage and potentially minerals. But technology alone won’t save us—people have to be willing to bet on the future.
Gertjan: What kind of leadership does this demand from today’s executives?
Eirik: A blend of analytical rigor and visionary courage. The world must grasp how policy, technology, and finance interlock, yet paint a narrative that mobilizes your organization and investors. And you must live with uncertainty—there will be more sleepless nights ahead.
Gertjan: Finally, if you could give one piece of advice to leaders and politician shaping the energy sector, what would it be?
Eirik: Stay curious about what happens outside your silo. The energy transition is a patchwork of disciplines. Building bridges between them may be the defining leadership task of our time.
Closing Thoughts
Our discussion with Eirik Wærness is a reminder that the energy transition isn’t just about technology—it’s about people willing to take risks and build bridges. For IESF and our global network of executive-search partners, the takeaway is clear: future success hinges on finding and developing political and commercial leaders who pair strategic clarity with execution power. Thank you, Eirik, for the inspiration—and to everyone helping shape a more sustainable world.
